[AARA] Fwd: Fw: TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 27

[Herman Campbell]

*To:* Paul Rappmundt <mailto:prappmundt at pkm.glacoxmail.com>
*Sent:* Monday, August 27, 2012 4:24 PM
*Subject:* TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 27

Model Runs courtesy of Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com 
<http://www.wunderground.com>)

WTNT44 KNHC 272058

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLAL092012

400 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY

STARTED BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT AND FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42003.THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS

DECREASED BY AT LEAST 7 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.THE HIGHEST

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 74 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST

QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS ARE NEAR 58 KT.

THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

ISAAC WOBBLED WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT

36-48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS

DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG

SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

REGION...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE GFS

AND ECMWF...OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS... NOW HAVE VERY SIMILAR

SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS

BETWEEN THOSE TWO MODELS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE

PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CLOUD

PATTERN OVER THE CENTER ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING EYE IN RECON DATA.

SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND

SAB.RECON WIND DATA INDICATE THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS ALSO

PULLED INWARD TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS

BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR

STILL LURKS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CDO FEATURE...

WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE AT ANY TIME AND

DISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY

AIR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT FOR

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS THE

CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL

OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS

IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.THE SLOW FORWARD

SPED OF AROUND 5 KT AFTER LANDFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN AND

FLOOD SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT27/2100Z 26.4N86.2W60 KT70 MPH

12H28/0600Z 27.4N87.5W70 KT80 MPH

24H28/1800Z 28.6N89.0W80 KT90 MPH

36H29/0600Z 29.5N90.0W85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST

48H29/1800Z 30.3N90.7W75 KT85 MPH...INLAND

72H30/1800Z 32.2N91.8W35 KT40 MPH...INLAND

96H31/1800Z 35.9N92.1W25 KT30 MPH...INLAND

120H01/1800Z 38.7N89.3W20 KT25 MPH...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

*Paul T. Rappmundt***

*St. Mary Parish OEP ***

*Deputy Director***

*985-395-7428 Office***

*985-312-9183 Cell***




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